摘 要
中国经济正在不断的发展,基础设施建设的过程中常会出现电站设备风险问题,本文将针对电站主设备制造项目风险管理进行研究,研究聚焦于电站主设备制造项目的风险管控问题,同时提出的政策建议能为中国电站主设备制造企业提高风险管控能力。
本文首先通过德尔菲法对内蒙古SL项目进行风险识别,得出了风险识别清单,然后运用层次分析法通过项目风险评价的权重分析、风险评价分析结果、总风险评估分析这三个方面对项目的风险评价进行阐述,最后通过转移风险、减轻风险、接受风险、回避风险四个方面对内蒙古SL项目的风险应对政策进行阐述。本文研究认为项目的风险应对政策应从四个方面展开,首先提出应该加快资金回笼速度,将风险转移至供应商、转移设计变更的风险,将设计变更条款写进合同两个方面来实施转移风险政策;其次提出在新技术投产之前积极实施试验工作、防范新工艺带来的制造风险两个方面来实施减轻风险政策;然后提出有效的对宏观经济政策进行研究和预测、对国家能源政策积极的跟进和预测两个方面来实施接受风险政策;最后提出提高对项目审批的监控、加强沟通回避客户风险、提升采购能力,回避原材料风险三个方面来实施回避风险政策。
本文的研究具有一定的针对性,通过对项目风险进行定义、定性和识别、分析、提出应对及控制措施,电站主设备制造企业加强风险管理并且持续提高管理水平和效率,进而更快更灵活地应对国际环境的变化和挑战,增强企业自身的市场竞争力。电站主设备制造项目的风险管理对于中国日渐强大的基础设施制造业来说较为重要,本文的政策建议可以给电站主设备制造项目的风险管控能力提高提供积极作用。
关键词:电站主设备制造项目,风险识别,风险评价,风险应对
Abstract
China’s economy is constantly developing, and power plant equipment risks often appear in the process of infrastructure construction. This thesis will study the risk management of power plant main equipment manufacturing projects,focusing on the risk management and control issues of power plant main equipment manufacturing projects, and propose policies at the same time It is recommended to improve risk management and control capabilities for Chinese power plant main equipment manufacturers.
This thesis first uses the Delphi method to identify the risk of Inner Monggolia SL project of the power station,and obtains the risk identification list of the main equipment manufacturing project of the power station,and then through the weight analysis of the power station main equipment manufacturing project risk evaluation,the risk evaluation of the power plant main equipment manufacturing project The analysis results and the analysis of the overall risk assessment of the main equipment manufacturing project of the power station elaborated on the risk assessment of the main equipment manufacturing project of the power station. Finally,Inner Monggolia SL project of the power station was analyzed through four aspects: risk transfer,risk reduction,risk acceptance,and risk avoidance. The risk response policy is elaborated. The research in this thesis believes that the risk response policy of the main equipment manufacturing project of the power station should be launched from four aspects. First,it is proposed that the speed of capital withdrawal should be accelerated,the risk should be transferred to the customer,the risk of design change should be transferred,and the design change clause should be written into the contract in two aspects Implement the risk transfer policy; secondly,it is proposed to implement the risk mitigation policy in two aspects: actively implementing experimental work before the new technology is put into production,and preventing the manufacturing risk brought by the new process; then,it proposes effective research and forecasting of macroeconomic policies and national energy The policy actively follows up and predicts two aspects to implement the risk acceptance policy; finally proposes to improve the monitoring of project approval,strengthen communication to avoid customer risks, improve procurement capabilities,and avoid raw material risks to implement the risk avoidance policy.
The research in this thesis has a certain pertinence. By defining,qualitatively and identifying,analyzing,and proposing response and control measures for project risks, power plant main equipment manufacturers strengthen risk management and continuously improve their management level and efficiency,thereby making it faster and more flexible Respond to changes and challenges in the international environment and enhance the company's own market competitiveness. The risk management of power plant main equipment manufacturing projects is more important for China's increasingly powerful infrastructure manufacturing industry. The policy recommendations in this thesis can provide a positive effect to improve the risk management and control capabilities of power plant main equipment manufacturing projects.
Key words: Main equipment manufacturing project of power station,Risk identification,
Risk assessment,Risk response
目 录
摘 要
Abstract
目 录
第一章 绪论
1.1研究背景
1.2研究目的及意义
1.2.1研究目的
1.2.2研究意义
1.3国内外研究现状
1.3.1国外研究现状
1.3.2国内研究现状
1.4研究内容和方法
1.4.1研究内容
1.4.2研究方法
1.5论文的主要框架
第二章 电站主设备制造项目的现状介绍
2.1电站主设备制造企业的介绍
2.1.1企业总体介绍
2.1.2电站主设备产品的种类
2.1.3电站主设备的介绍
2.2电站主设备制造项目的工作程序
2.3电站主设备制造项目的特点或存在的问题
2.3.1项目开始的特点及可能存在的问题
2.3.2项目进行中的特点及可能存在的问题
2.3.3项目结束后的特点及可能存在的问题
2.4本章小结
第三章 电站主设备制造项目的风险识别
3.1项目风险识别方法
3.2电站主设备制造项目风险管理的主要过程及风险识别
3.2.1电站主设备制造项目风险管理的主要过程
3.2.1.1项目启动阶段
3.2.1.2项目设计阶段
3.2.1.3项目采购阶段
3.2.1.4项目制造阶段
3.2.1.5项目发运和服务阶段
3.2.2电站主设备制造项目的风险识别
3.3内蒙古SL项目的风险识别
3.3.1内蒙古SL项目概况
3.3.2问卷设计
3.3.3数据收集
3.4内蒙古SL项目的风险问题及原因分析
3.4.1风险问题分析
3.4.2风险产生的原因
3.5本章小结
第四章 电站主设备制造项目的风险评价
4.1项目风险评价常用方法
4.1.1故障树分析法
4.1.2模糊综合评价法
4.1.3随机模拟法
4.1.4层次分析法
4.1.5电站主设备制造项目风险评价方法的选择
4.2内蒙古SL项目风险评价的权重分析
4.3内蒙古SL项目的风险评价分析结果
4.4内蒙古SL项目总风险评估情况分析
4.5本章小结
第五章 电站主设备制造项目的风险应对
5.1转移风险
5.1.1加快资金回笼速度,将风险转移至分包商
5.1.2转移设计变更的风险,将设计变更条款写进合同
5.2减轻风险
5.2.1在新技术投产之前积极实施试验工作
5.2.2防范新工艺带来的制造风险
5.3接受风险
5.3.1有效的对宏观经济政策进行研究和预测
5.3.2对国家能源政策积极的跟进和预测
5.4回避风险
5.4.1提高对项目审批的监控
5.4.2加强沟通回避客户风险
5.4.3提升采购能力,回避原材料风险
5.5本章小结
第六章 结论与展望
6.1结论
6.2展望
参考文献
致 谢
攻读硕士学位期间发表的学术论文
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